🤑 Fitch Affirms Morongo's IDR at 'BBB-'; Revises Outlook to Negative

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Fitch Ratings-New York April Fitch Ratings has affirmed The Morongo Band of Mission Indians' Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-'.


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Morongo 2020 Re-Opening

The tribe's liquidity is enhanced with a Rainy Day Fund established pursuant to the amended compact with the State of California. View additional rating details.

Fitch also affirmed Morongo's revenue bonds and senior secured notes at 'BBB-'. The negative impact is mostly felt in second-quarter with some recovery seen in the back half of.

Morongo's Rating Outlook revision to Negative reflects the tribe's exposure to coronavirus-related effects on the gaming industry, including closure of the tribe's casino, with an unclear timeline for reopening.

The tribe may contemplate further expansions, although Fitch expects the tribe will take measures to pursue such plans in a way that is not detrimental to its financial profile.

If the timeline for a deleveraging path for Morongo becomes more unclear, morongo or pechanga 2020 the impact is more severe than what is currently forecast, morongo or pechanga 2020 could result in a downgrade. Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model s contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model s.

The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. The tribe's government council has remained stable, and Fitch expects it to continue maintaining conservative financial policies. The bonds are fully amortizing and comprise the entire capital structure. The tribe could stop this funding and start accessing it under various stipulated scenarios relating to the decline in gaming revenues. The Rating Outlook was revised to Negative from Stable. The 'BBB-' IDR takes into account the stability and demonstrated prudence of the tribe's leadership as well as good transparency with Fitch. The establishment of a Rainy Day Fund protects the tribe's government from adverse fluctuations in casino operations while the Local Community Benefit Fund allows for partial debt servicing and tribal-expense reimbursement. San Manuel recently opened a casino expansion and is starting on a hotel expansion, and Pechanga recently completed a hotel expansion. Only the casino enterprise's revenues are pledged for the benefit of the bondholders. The 'BBB-' IDR continues to reflect Morongo's solid financial profile and balance sheet, as well as the issuer's sufficient liquidity position to withstand the near-term cash flow impact. Fitch views the tribe's financial stability as a key credit driver. De-levering will also be supported by debt amortization in Morongo has some cushion relative to its 3. STOF is more diversified, with multiple assets throughout the state of Florida and benefits from a gaming monopoly in the Tampa market. However, Morongo's main competitors, including San Manuel Casino and Pechanga Resort Casino, are expanding their existing respective footprints. Morongo's 'BBB-' rating reflects its solid financial profile, strong market position, and a history of prudent and stable governance. The risk is partially offset by the enterprise's strong debt-service coverage, the tribe's prudent financial policies and solid liquidity, and the tribe's alternate sources of income, including federal grants, transfers from ancillary enterprises and annuity-like right-of-way payments from utility companies. Fitch could revise the Rating Outlook to Stable when the extent and duration of the coronavirus becomes more clear and Fitch gains more confidence in the tribe's ability to deleverage below 1. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. These positive considerations help offset the concentration risk as the tribe's cash flows are highly dependent on a single-site casino enterprise. Leverage will increase to 2. Solid Liquidity: The tribe's liquidity is strong with appropriate reserves at the tribal level, while the cash at the enterprise level is mainly for operating purposes. Cash balances at the casino heading into the disruption are sufficient to fund debt service obligations and weather cash burn at the property. Stable, Albeit Increasing Competition: Morongo benefits from its proximity to the more populous Los Angeles and Inland Empire areas relative to its competition. ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity ies , either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity ies. Both the funds replace previous direct payments to the state and support the tribe's financial position. International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction of four notches over three years. Fitch projects Morongo's leverage will spike above its downgrade sensitivity in but will return within the 1. Department of the Interior. Solid Financial Flexibility: Since the compact amendment, the tribe has significantly increased their access to additional liquidity. Agua Caliente is also moving forward with its third casino just outside of Palm Springs, California, and broke ground in late Single-Site Risk: Morongo's lack of geographic diversification relative to other highly rated commercial and Native American gaming issuers is a key credit risk. Deviations from the above could lead to negative rating pressure. The tribe recently completed its casino renovation and should complete the expansion portion by the end of April, which should support its competitive position upon reopening. All three tribes benefit from sound tribal governance. Barriers to entry are significant as California does not permit full-scale commercial gaming, and Native American casinos are restricted to land taken into trust by the U.